“Growth and EU-Trade Relations: A Case Study”

“Growth and EU-Trade Relations: A Case Study” (Co-author: Aristea Gkagka).

SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, 2011 1-11

05/2009 – XIX International Conference of IT&FA – Beijing

09/2010 – European Trade Study Group 2010 – Lausanne

Our analysis differs in two ways from the existing trade / growth literature. First, we testify the validity of the four thinkable relevant hypotheses for the same dataset simultaneously: export-led growth, import-led growth, growth-led imports and growth-led exports. Second, we check for the different effects that might result from trading within a regional trade agreement regime. We see that trading partners do matter: EU-15 growth seems to be favored by intra-EU ex-ports and imports from the rest of the world, with the exception of China. Yet, the reversed hypotheses are not confirmable. Therefore, even if trading with specific countries creates positive growth effects, they are not likely to be long-lasting.

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